Vietnam’s Policy Toward Chinese Investments in Metro Systems

Hedging and Selective Engagement in Infrastructure Development

Authors

  • David Nazar Coutiño National Dong Hwa University, Taiwan

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19184/csi.v6i1.53696

Keywords:

Vietnam's foreign policy, Vietnam-China relations, Vietnam's metro systems, Chinese investments in Vietnam, Hedging

Abstract

Vietnam’s policy toward Chinese investment in its metro systems reflects a broader hedging strategy between major powers, characterised by a cautious and selective approach to economic engagement with China. Unlike other recipient countries that rely heavily on Chinese financing and firms for infrastructure development, Vietnam incorporates Chinese investment alongside partnerships with other actors, particularly Japan and France. This diversification of capital sources mitigates dependency risks while sustaining infrastructure development. At the same time, Vietnam’s metro systems are structured as state-subsidised public services rather than profit-oriented ventures. This institutional configuration limits their attractiveness to private investors operating under market conditions, including Chinese firms that typically seek commercially viable or asset-backed projects. Furthermore, compared to sectors such as mining or agriculture, metro systems offer limited integration into transnational production chains and thus hold lower strategic and extractive value. Methodologically, this study employs a qualitative case study approach, drawing on policy documents, investment reports, and secondary literature to analyse Vietnam’s infrastructure strategy within a political economy framework. This article argues that Vietnam’s metro policy's political-economic configuration both reflects and reinforces its broader hedging strategy. By selectively engaging Chinese capital in a controlled, relatively low-risk sector, Vietnam can balance the benefits of external investment with the need to minimise long-term dependency. The case of metro development, therefore, demonstrates how infrastructure policy can function as a strategic instrument, enabling the state to navigate economic cooperation while maintaining autonomy within an asymmetrical regional order.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Asian Development Bank. Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs. ADB, 2017.

Barney, Keith, Roland Rajah, and Mariza Cooray. Trapped in Dept: China’s Role in Economic Crisis. Lowy Institute Indo-Pacific Development Centre, 2025.

Briginshaw, David. “Ho Chi Minh City Finally Opens First Metro Line.” International Railway Journal, December 27, 2024. https://www.railjournal.com/passenger/metros/ho-chi-minh-city-finally-opens-first-metro-line/.

Busbarat, Pongphisoot (Paul), Alvin Camba, Fadhila Inas Pratiwi, et al. How Has China’s Belt and Road Initiative Impacted Southeast Asian Countries? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2023. https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2023/12/how-has-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-impacted-southeast-asian-countries?lang=en.

Chen, Amy Hsin-Hsiang. Taipei Metro Faces First Financial Loss in 2025. December 23, 2024. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/english/2727390.

China Railway Group Limited (CREC). Hanoi Metro Line 2A, Vietnam. 2019. https://www.crecg.com/zgztywz/core_business/overseas_business/2025021110100924229/index.html.

Ciorciari, John D., and Jürgen Haacke. “Hedging in International Relations: An Introduction.” International Relations of the Asia-Pacific 19, no. 3 (2019): 367–74. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1093/irap/lcz017.

Congress (of the United States of America). “U.S. Defense Infrastructure in the Indo-Pacific: Background and Issues for Congress.” Legislation. Congress.Gov, June 6, 2023. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47589.

Cornfiel, Justin. The History of Vietnam. Greenwood Press, 2008.

Dayant, Alexandre, and Grace Stanhope. Ambition versus Delivery in China’s BRI Megaprojects in Southeast Asia. Lowy Institute, 2024.

Dung, Huong. “Hanoi Proposes Additional $82 Mln for Second Metro Line.” The Investor, May 8, 2023. https://theinvestor.vn/hanoi-proposes-additional-82-mln-for-second-metro-line-d4838.html.

Dung, Phan Xuan. “‘No One Can Force Vietnam to Choose Sides’: Vietnam as a Self-Reliant Middle Power.” Asia Policy 17, no. 4 (2022): 151–79. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2022.0061.

European Investment Bank (EIB). Vietnam: The Elevated Section of Hanoi Metro Line 3 to Open. 2024. https://www.eib.org/en/press/all/2024-441-the-elevated-section-of-hanoi-metro-line-3-to-open.

France 24. Emmanuel Macron Arrives in Vietnam for the Start of a Southeast Asia Tour. May 25, 2025. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250525-france-s-macron-arrives-in-vietnam-for-southeast-asia-tour.

Gainsborough, Martin. Vietnam: Rethinking the State. Zed Books, 2010.

Gerstl, Alfred. “Southeast Asia’s Grand Strategy: Hedging.” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, 2024. https://gjia.georgetown.edu/conflict-security/southeast-asias-grand-strategy-hedging/.

Goh, Evelyn. “Meeting the China Challenge: The U.S. in Southeast Asian Regional Security Strategies.” Policy Studies, 2005.

Guarascio, Francesco, and Phuong Nguyen. “France, Vietnam Sign Deals Worth $10 Billion as Macron Visits Hanoi.” Reuters, May 26, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/france-vietnam-set-sign-dozens-deals-macron-visits-hanoi-2025-05-26/.

Hai, An. Vietnam Parliament Approves $8 Billion Railway with Loan from China. February 19, 2025. https://www.voanews.com/a/vietnam-parliament-approves-8-billion-railway-with-loan-from-china/7981524.html.

Hanoi Metro. “General of Hanoi City Urban Railway Network.” https://metrohanoi.vn/en/metro-network/quy-hoach-mang-lthanh-pho-ha-noi/.

Hanoi Metro. “Hanoi Metro’s Map.” https://metrohanoi.vn/en/ban-do-8-tuyen/.

Hanoi Metro. “Web Page Hanoi Metro.” https://metrohanoi.vn/en/?noredirect=en_US.

Hanoi Rail Transit. Line 1 Hanoi Metro (Long Bien Line). n.d. https://hanoirailtransit.com/line-1/.

HCMC Metro. “Ho Chi Minh City Metro Guide.” https://hochiminhcitymetro.com/.

HCMC Metro. “Metro Schedule Ho Chi Minh City.” https://www.metrohochiminh.com/.

Hiep, Le Hong. “The Belt and Road Initiative in Vietnam.” In NIDS ASEAN Workshop 2019 ‘China’s BRI and ASEAN.’ National Institute for Defence Studies, 2019.

Hillman, Jonathan E. Game of Loans: How China Bought Hambantota. Center of Strategic and International Studies, 2018. https://www.csis.org/analysis/game-loans-how-china-bought-hambantota.

Huyen, N. “Government Approves $1.4 Billion for Metro Line 2 in Hanoi.” Vietnamnet Global, December 17, 2024. https://vietnamnet.vn/en/government-approves-1-4-billion-for-metro-line-2-in-hanoi-2353293.html.

Ian Cheng Wei Seow. “Keep Your Enemies Close: Vietnam’s Security Cooperation with China.” RSIS Commentaries Rajaratnam School of International Studies, 2025, 170–25.

Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). “Signing of Japanese ODA Loan Agreement with Viet Nam.” January 9, 2024. https://www.jica.go.jp/english/information/press/2023/20240104.11.html.

Kumar, Sanjeev. China’s BRI in Different Regions of the World: Cooperation, Contradictions and Concerns. Taylor & Francis, 2023.

Kumar, Sanjeev. “China’s BRI since 2013: Domestic Drivers, Conceptual Discourse and Policy Pronouncements.” In China’s BRI in Different Regions of the World : Cooperation, Contradictions and Concerns, edited by Sanjeev Kumar. Taylor & Francis, 2023.

Kumar, VK Santosh. “SMRT’s Finances Hit by 2024 EWL Disruption.” Tabla!, August 1, 2025. https://www.tabla.com.sg/news/singapore/smrts-finances-hit-2024-ewl-disruption.

L’Avenir du Tonkin. Chemins Du Fer Du Tonkin. January 3, 1894.

L’Avenir du Tonkin. L’inauguration de La Ligne Hanoï-Nam-Dimh. December 26, 1902.

Lisinski, Klara Vlahčević. The Silent Cartel: How Chinese Companies Came to Dominate Critical Mineral Markets. New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, 2025. https://newlinesinstitute.org/tech-econ-sov-sec/the-silent-cartel-how-chinese-companies-came-to-dominate-critical-mineral-markets/.

London, Jonathan Daniel, ed. Politics in Contemporary Vietnam: Party, State, and Authority Relations. Palgrave Macmillan, 2014.

Lowy Institute. Asia Power Index 2024 Edition. n.d. https://power.lowyinstitute.org/.

Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W W Norton, 2014.

Mearsheimer, John J., and Stephen M. Walt. “The Case for Offshore Balancing.” July/August, 2016. https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Offshore-Balancing.pdf.

MERICS. Mapping the Belt and Road Initiative: This Is Where We Stand. 2018. https://merics.org/en/tracker/mapping-belt-and-road-initiative-where-we-stand.

Ministry of Construction. “Socialist Republic of Vietnam, Ha Noi, HCM City Accelerate Metro Construction.” April 25, 2025. https://moc.gov.vn/en/news/84920/ha-noi-hcm-city-accelerate-metro-construction.aspx.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA). “PRC, Joint Communique of the Leaders’ Roundtable of the 2nd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation.” 2019. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zy/gb/202405/t20240531_11367381.html.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), PRC. China and Vietnam. 2025. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/gjhdq_665435/2675_665437/2792_663578/202406/t20240607_11414424.html.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA), PRC. Joint Communique of the Leaders’ Roundtable of the 2nd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. 2019. MOFA https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zy/gb/202405/t20240531_11367381.html.

N Beauchamp-Mustafaga. “Powering the PLA Abroad: How the Chinese Military Might Fuel Its Overseas Presence.” China and the Asia Pacific 22, no. 9 (2023). https://jamestown.org/powering-the-pla-abroad-how-the-chinese-military-might-fuel-its-overseas-presence/.

Observatory of Economic Complexity. “China/Kyrgyzstan.” https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/kgz.

Observatory of Economic Complexity. “China/Uzbekistan.” https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/uzb/partner/chn.

Observatory of Economic Complexity. “China/Vietnam.” https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/chn/partner/vnm.

Oh, Yoon Ah. “Chapter 5 Vietnam’s Economic Dependence on China: Understanding Vulnerability through a Typology of Trade Shocks.” In The Dragon’s Underbelly. Dynamics and Dilemmas in Vietnam’s Economy and Politics, edited by N Truong and T Vu. ISEAS Publishing, 2023. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1355/9789815011401-007.

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. OECD Investment Policy Reviews: Vietnam. OECD Publishing, 2019.

Pouille, Jordan. “Chinese Cities Are Facing the Financial Abyss of Their Subway Systems.” Le Monde, June 20, 2025. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/06/20/chinese-cities-are-facing-the-financial-abyss-of-their-subway-systems_6742523_19.html.

Quân, Minh. “Metro Line 2 in Ho Chi Minh City Unexpectedly Switches from ODA Capital to Budget.” Lao Dong, November 25, 2024. https://news.laodong.vn/xa-hoi/metro-so-2-o-tphcm-bat-ngo-chuyen-tu-von-oda-sang-ngan-sach-1426439.ldo.

Serebrisky, Tomás, Andrés Gómez‐Lobo, Nicolás Estupiñán, and Ramón Muñoz‐Raskin. “Affordability and Subsidies in Public Urban Transport: What Do We Mean, What Can Be Done?” Transport Reviews 29, no. 6 (2009): 715–39. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1080/01441640902786415.

Snell, Govi. “Vietnam’s US$67 Billion North-South High-Speed Railway: Privately Built with Public Money?” South China Morning Post, June 2, 2025. https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3312733/vietnams-us67-billion-north-south-high-speed-railway-privately-built-public-money.

Southeast Asia Infrastructure. HCMC Metro Line 2 to Commence Construction in Late 2025. May 27, 2025. https://southeastasiainfra.com/hcmc-metro-line-2-to-commence-construction-in-late-2025/.

State Council, PRC. Xi Arrives in Hanoi for State Visit to Vietnam. April 14, 2025. Gov.cn https://english.www.gov.cn/news/202504/14/content_WS67fd1ad1c6d0868f4e8f1ada.html.

Thu, Huong Le. “Vietnam’s Persistent Foreign Policy Dilemma: Caught between Self-Reliance and Proactive Integration.” Asia Policy 13, no. 4 (2018): 123–44. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2018.0050.

Tiang Boon, Hoo, and Sarah Teo. “Caught in the Middle? Middle Powers amid U.S.-China Competition.” Asia Policy 17, no. 4 (2022): 59–76. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1353/asp.2022.0058.

Tsuchiya, Takahiro. China’s Strategic Integration of Port Development and Military-Civil Fusion. Japan Institute of International Affairs, 2025. https://www.jiia.or.jp/en/column/2025/04/prc-maritime-fy2024-01.html.

Tuoi Tre News. Ho Chi Minh City Approves $51.67mn Advance from Budget to Pay Metro Contractors. October 26, 2017. https://news.tuoitre.vn/ho-chi-minh-city-approves-5167mn-advance-from-budget-to-pay-metro-contractors-10342259.htm.

Tuyen, Tran Thi Mong. “Vietnam’s Stance Towards the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).” Journal of East Asian Affairs 37, no. 1 (2024): 55–89.

United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. World Investment Report 2022: International Tax Reforms and Sustainable Investment. United Nations, 2022.

Viet Nam News. Japan Provides Additional $288m of Funding for HCM City’s First Metro Line. December 20, 2023. https://vietnamnews.vn/society/1638282/japan-provides-additional-288m-of-funding-for-hcm-city-s-first-metro-line.html.

Vietnamnet Global. Consulting and Supervision Costs at Cat Linh-Hadong Metro Line Soars by $7.8 Million. August 13, 2021. https://vietnamnet.vn/en/consulting-and-supervision-costs-at-cat-linh-hadong-metro-line-soars-by-78-million-774491.html.

Vu, Khang. “Remembering Nguyen Phu Trong’s Foreign Policy Legacies.” The Diplomat, July 22, 2024. https://thediplomat.com/2024/07/remembering-nguyen-phu-trongs-foreign-policy-legacies/.

Vu, Khang. “What Southeast Asian Countries Can Learn from Vietnam’s History of Negotiating Territorial Disputes with China.” The Diplomat, March 17, 2025. https://thediplomat.com/2025/03/what-southeast-asian-countries-can-learn-from-vietnams-history-of-negotiating-territorial-disputes-with-china/.

Vuving, A. L. “Vietnam’s Strategic Hedging.” Asian Politics & Policy 8, no. 3 (2016): 376–93.

Vy, Ha. “Hanoi People’s Committee Takes Over Construction of Metro Line 1.” Vietnam Investment Review, May 7, 2022. https://vir.com.vn/hanoi-peoples-committee-takes-over-construction-of-metro-line-1-93296.html.

World Bank. Vietnam 2035: Toward Prosperity, Creativity, Equity, and Democracy. World Bank Publications, 2020.

Yaacob, Rahman. Partnership of Convenience: Ream Naval Base and the Cambodia–China Convergence. Lowy Institute, 2024. https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/partnership-convenience-ream-naval-base-cambodia-china-convergence.

Downloads

Published

2026-02-28